To the casual observer, Russia is stuck where it was a decade ago. Vladimir Putin has once again assumed the presidency and any semblance of organized political opposition largely faded away after the March elections. But popular protests persist, and the existing politico-economic system can no longer adequately address the shifting social realities inside the country or the challenges of the global environment. The system must change if Russia is to develop further, and Moscow’s policies of economic modernization alone are neither sufficient nor possible without political reform.
Though most of these reforms are taking place on a domestic scale, Russia’s changing character has broader implications—especially for Europe. The European Union is searching for ways to extend its strategic depth into Eurasia, and Russia would be a valuable partner in that endeavor. But to forge an effective partnership with Moscow, the EU must first understand Russia’s political, economic, and security designs, and how best to deal with another round of Putin.
European leaders need to look beyond the usual stereotypes of Russia and realize that it is not neo-Soviet and neo-imperial, and it is not on a path toward inevitable stagnation and certain decline. They must also understand that Vladimir Putin is a transactional, results-oriented politician who will bargain hard to get the best deals he can. Europe would be wise to make use of its strongest soft-power tool: liberalization and a gradual phasing out of the visa regime between the Schengen countries and Russia.
Political change in Russia, however, will be domestically driven. While Europeans are free to offer value judgments and comment on Russian developments, they would be wise to stay away from Russian politics. And the countries that lie between the EU and Russia should be viewed primarily in terms of their domestic evolution, not as sites of competition for spheres of influence.
The European Union’s common foreign policy strategy should include Russia—but not merely as a source of energy and raw materials, an object of European human rights and democracy discourse, or even a field to exercise European soft power. If the EU can begin to think strategically about Russia, it will begin to emerge as a global strategic player.
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