Sample Article: Implications of an Expanded Turkish Role in Syria

Conflicting reports out of Turkey suggest that Turkish authorities may have entered Syria on Aug. 20 to distribute humanitarian aid. Citing Turkey's Anatolia news agency, AFP reported that Turkish authorities handed out baby food, sleeping bags and supplies to Syrians just across the border from the southern Turkish town of Reyhanli in Hatay province.

Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who has received heightened criticism recently for his leadership of Turkey's foreign policy, told Turkish daily Hurriyet that Turkey could not accept more than 100,000 Syrian refugees. Instead, Davutoglu said, Ankara would "welcome them in Syrian territory" under the auspices of the United Nations. The Turkish government said it would participate in a ministerial-level meeting at the United Nations on Aug. 30 to address the refugee issue. There are already a reported 70,000 Syrian refugees in Turkey.

Ankara has for weeks been preparing the public for an expanded Turkish role in Syria. It views the neighboring conflict with increasing urgency and has been under pressure from the United States to accelerate the transition. It is not clear exactly what the Turkish government is doing in Syria, but its operating there -- even in the no-man's-land between the two borders and under the guise of handing out aid -- could mark a significant expansion of Turkish involvement. It could also trigger a backlash from Syria and Iran, while potentially improving Turkish-Israeli ties.

Analysis

Turkey's distribution of aid inside Syria could have a range of implications. It is unclear at this time if Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime has the resources to respond to a Turkish move into its border areas, but if it does, its response will be predicated on Turkey's actions and whether it expands its support for the Syrian rebels. The Syrian regime does not want a war with Turkey, but it also must show that Turkey will be punished if it pushes too far.

It is also not clear what Iran -- al Assad's closest ally -- will do. Turkey has accused both Syria and Iran of supporting the Kurdish militants that operate in southern Turkey and the border region Turkey shares with Syria, Iraq and Iran, and there could be a surge of attacks by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (commonly known by its Kurdish acronym, PKK) in Hatay province and other areas of Turkey. Ankara is also worried that the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq may fracture, which could erode the political and economic gains it has made there and add to its problems with Kurdish militancy.

Ankara has tried to deal with the turmoil in Syria while staying out of the conflict. It has provided sanctuary for Free Syrian Army rebels and has looked to its allies in the Kurdistan Regional Government for help in containing the Kurds in northern Syria. 

While expanding its role in Syria, Turkey will also be looking for more regional support, especially from Israel. Political ties between Turkey and Israel have been strained since the May 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, but Turkish media reported Aug. 20 that an Israeli delegation led by Deputy Finance Minister Yitzhak Cohen visited Istanbul and Ankara last week and met with officials from the ruling Justice and Development Party to discuss ways to improve relations. Turkish officials reportedly extended the invitation. Meanwhile, Turkish and Israeli trade ties continue to grow.

Bilateral efforts by Turkey to re-establish positive relations with Israel would make sense for a variety of reasons. Israel would like to improve ties with Turkey and have it be the regional power overseeing a transition in neighboring Syria. Although it is not eager to have a Sunni-led government dominate Syria, Israel would prefer to have the post-al Assad government shaped by the Turkish ruling party's brand of pragmatic Islamism, rather than by the more radical Salafist strands within the rebellion.

If Ankara is expanding its involvement in Syria, it will do so in a measured fashion because it will be fearful of pushback from the Syrian regime and Iran via the Kurds. Israel reportedly has been active for years in the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq and is thought to have deep intelligence links with Kurdish guerrillas. There are limits to the potential reaches of Turkish-Israeli cooperation, and it is unclear how much help Israel can give Turkey with the Kurds. Moreover, Israel will be looking to others aside from Turkey to shape a transitional government in Syria. Still, Israel and Turkey may have enough common ground over Syria to help them begin to rebuild ties.

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